4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 75

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to LA 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model