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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 8-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model