4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 42-E.Evans punts 68 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model