4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 8-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.10 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model