4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to ATL 1, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 7 for 6 yards (86-K.Rader, 52-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP