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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 35.0

Win Probability

ATL
44.2%
TEN
55.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Will Levis (TEN) -0.183 vs Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.044 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Will Levis in place of Ryan Tannehill)
  • TEN on 7 more days rest than ATL

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

ATL

Tae Davis LB Out Concussion
Bradley Pinion P Questionable Illness
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Groin

TEN

Ryan Tannehill QB Out Ankle
Josh Whyle TE Out Concussion
Roger McCreary CB Out Hamstring
Naquan Jones DT Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 23
–
TEN 28

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 FG ATL (9:51) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – TEN 0
  • Q1 02:37 TD TEN (2:37) 8-W.Levis pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – TEN 6
  • Q2 05:32 TD TEN (5:32) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – TEN 13
  • Q3 12:11 FG ATL (12:11) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 6 – TEN 14
  • Q3 03:06 FG ATL (3:06) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 9 – TEN 14
  • Q3 01:46 TD TEN (1:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – TEN 20
  • Q4 14:22 TD ATL (14:22) 7-B.Robinson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – TEN 21
  • Q4 07:06 TD TEN (7:06) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-T.Graham]. ATL 16 – TEN 27
  • Q4 03:50 TD ATL (3:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 16-S.Miller for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key]. ATL 22 – TEN 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (9:51) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:50) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 37-A.Hooker. 37-A.Hooker up the middle to TEN 36 for 2 yards (51-D.Malone; 27-R.Grant).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:52) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 41 yards to ATL 15, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to TEN 34, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to TEN 49 for 15 yards (27-R.Grant). PENALTY on TEN-56-M.Rice, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 49.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to ATL 1, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 7 for 6 yards (86-K.Rader, 52-J.Jones).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to TEN 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to TEN 32 for 1 yard (18-M.Hollins).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:23) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:27) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to TEN 22 for 9 yards (87-J.FitzPatrick).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:44) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:13) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to 50, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to ATL 43 for 7 yards (51-D.Malone).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 55%

    (:35) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 32 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 76%

    (12:11) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 27%

    (7:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 7 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (3:06) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:23) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to TEN 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror pushed ob at TEN 39 for 9 yards (87-J.FitzPatrick). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 30.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 15-V.Jefferson to ATL 45 for 11 yards (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:32) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 78 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 15-V.Jefferson.