4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 91

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 13-B.Pinion punts 60 yards to TEN 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to TEN 32 for 1 yard (18-M.Hollins).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.98 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 48, worth -2.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model