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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.45 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP