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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP