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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 21

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model