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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model