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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 15-V.Jefferson to ATL 45 for 11 yards (37-A.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model