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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 28 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model