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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 23 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 15-V.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 78, worth -1.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 35, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model