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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 37-A.Hooker. 37-A.Hooker up the middle to TEN 36 for 2 yards (51-D.Malone; 27-R.Grant).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model