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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 89

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 13-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to TEN 34, Center-49-L.McCullough. 33-E.Garror to TEN 49 for 15 yards (27-R.Grant). PENALTY on TEN-56-M.Rice, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 49.

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.70 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model