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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 33-E.Garror.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP