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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model