4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -9.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BAL
66.7%
ARI
33.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Joshua Dobbs (ARI): -0.153 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.140 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BAL 25
–
ARI 19
Projected margin: BAL by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

BAL

Marcus Williams S Out Hamstring
Odafe Oweh LB Questionable Ankle
Keaton Mitchell RB Questionable Hamstring
Tylan Wallace WR Questionable Hamstring

ARI

Krys Barnes LB Out Hamstring
Kevin Strong DT Out Shoulder
Elijah Wilkinson G Out Neck
Kyler Murray QB Doubtful Knee
Greg Dortch WR Questionable Ankle
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Groin
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 31
–
ARI 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:08 TD ARI (8:08) 9-J.Dobbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – ARI 6
  • Q1 02:43 TD BAL (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – ARI 7
  • Q2 00:25 TD BAL (:25) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – ARI 7
  • Q3 00:45 TD BAL (:45) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – ARI 7
  • Q4 09:32 FG BAL (9:32) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 24 – ARI 7
  • Q4 06:45 TD ARI (6:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – ARI 13
  • Q4 02:56 TD BAL (2:56) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 30 – ARI 15
  • Q4 01:18 TD ARI (1:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-M.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 31 – ARI 21
  • Q4 00:29 FG ARI (:29) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. BAL 31 – ARI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 50%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short middle to 2-M.Brown (58-M.Pierce).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 72%

    (12:00) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

    (8:58) 31-E.Demercado up the middle to BAL 36 for no gain (58-M.Pierce).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:40) 11-J.Stout punts 54 yards to ARI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 47 for 14 yards (26-B.Price).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 35%

    (4:12) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 17 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:43) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to ARI 13, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 24 for 11 yards (45-D.Houston-Carson).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 29%

    (7:27) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to ARI 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:02) 12-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to BAL 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-87-G.Swaim.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:58) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 33 for 9 yards (84-E.Higgins; 44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 81%

    (9:32) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.