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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 31-E.Demercado up the middle to BAL 36 for no gain (58-M.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.85 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model