Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

(4:02) 12-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to BAL 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-87-G.Swaim.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.51 EP
53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model