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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(14:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-D.Duvernay ran ob at BAL 33 for 9 yards (84-E.Higgins; 44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model