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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short middle to 2-M.Brown (58-M.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model