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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model