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HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

HOU
57.6%
CAR
42.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.230 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 19
–
CAR 17
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 36

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

HOU

Brevin Jordan TE Out Foot
Sheldon Rankins DT Out Knee
Robert Woods WR Out Foot
Tytus Howard T Questionable Hand
Xavier Hutchinson WR Questionable Foot
Hassan Ridgeway DT Questionable Calf

CAR

Vonn Bell S Out Quadricep
Laviska Shenault WR Out Ankle
Brian Burns LB Questionable Elbow
Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Questionable Illness
Xavier Woods S Questionable Hamstring
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Hip
Taylor Moton T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 13
–
CAR 15

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:15 TD HOU (13:15) 78-L.Tunsil reported in as eligible. 47-A.Beck up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 01:39 TD CAR (1:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – CAR 6
  • Q3 10:50 FG CAR (10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. HOU 7 – CAR 9
  • Q3 08:02 FG CAR (8:02) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. HOU 7 – CAR 12
  • Q3 00:42 TD HOU (:42) 78-L.Tunsil reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – CAR 12
  • Q4 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. HOU 13 – CAR 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette. PENALTY on CAR-52-D.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 19.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:59) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to HOU 46, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-N.Dell to CAR 49 for 5 yards (41-M.Farley).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%

    (9:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 33 yards to CAR 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to HOU 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-N.Dell to HOU 33 for 18 yards (32-D.Bootle). PENALTY on HOU-43-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 99%

    (7:46) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 17 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:03) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 40 for 3 yards (20-K.Hollman).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 91%

    (8:02) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (:42) 78-L.Tunsil reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 20 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (13:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to HOU 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 21 for 4 yards (37-D.Ross).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%

    (6:23) 11-C.Johnston punts 31 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 31%

    (3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to HOU 44 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).