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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 90

Houston Texans 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 40 for 3 yards (20-K.Hollman).

The Three Options

GO -3.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model