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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 28

Carolina Panthers 6 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model