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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 9 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.02 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP