Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 12 – Houston Texans 13

(13:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to HOU 21, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 3-N.Dell.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.53 EP
78% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 57, worth -2.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model