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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 47

Carolina Panthers 12 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to HOU 44 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.13 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model