Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to HOU 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-N.Dell to HOU 33 for 18 yards (32-D.Bootle). PENALTY on HOU-43-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.23 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model