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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to DAL 20, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-6-T.Tomlinson.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 68, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP