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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LA
35.6%
DAL
64.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DAL on 6 more days rest than LA
  • DAL offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
DAL 26
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

LA

Hunter Long TE Out Hamstring
Rob Havenstein T Questionable Calf
Ernest Jones LB Questionable Knee
Ben Skowronek WR Questionable Achilles

DAL

Tyron Smith T Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 20
–
DAL 43

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:49 TD DAL (9:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 87-J.Ferguson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 05:25 FG LA (5:25) 8-L.Havrisik 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – DAL 7
  • Q1 00:48 FG DAL (:48) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. LA 3 – DAL 10
  • Q1 00:43 TD DAL (:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at LA 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – DAL 16
  • Q2 13:44 SAF DAL (13:44) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-47-A.Ward, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. LA 3 – DAL 19
  • Q2 12:50 TD DAL (12:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – DAL 25
  • Q2 02:34 TD DAL (2:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – DAL 32
  • Q2 00:09 TD LA (:09) (Shotgun) 24-R.Freeman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – DAL 33
  • Q3 11:35 TD LA (11:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 18-B.Skowronek for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – DAL 33
  • Q3 01:36 FG DAL (1:36) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. LA 17 – DAL 36
  • Q4 12:24 TD DAL (12:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 3-B.Cooks for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 17 – DAL 42
  • Q4 05:34 FG LA (5:34) 8-L.Havrisik 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 20 – DAL 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (5:25) 8-L.Havrisik 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 60%

    (:48) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:44) 42-E.Evans punt is BLOCKED by 54-S.Williams, Center-47-A.Ward, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (11:30) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to DAL 20, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-6-T.Tomlinson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:15) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to DAL 37, Center-47-A.Ward. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 37 for no gain (6-T.Tomlinson).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 68%

    (5:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-B.Cooks to LA 32 for 5 yards (37-Q.Lake).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 97%

    (1:36) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 11-B.Rypien pass short right to 17-P.Nacua to LA 46 for 13 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 45%

    (13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-B.Rypien pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp [11-M.Parsons].

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:55) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to DAL 13, Center-47-A.Ward. 9-K.Turpin for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 13.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:29) 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to DAL 49, Center-44-T.Sieg. 81-A.Trammell to LA 46 for -5 yards (54-S.Williams, 25-N.Wright).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 83%

    (5:34) 8-L.Havrisik 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (3:55) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to LA 15, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 87 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 37 yards to 50, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.