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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Dallas Cowboys 26

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to DAL 37, Center-47-A.Ward. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 37 for no gain (6-T.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model