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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 37

Dallas Cowboys 33 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(5:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-B.Cooks to LA 32 for 5 yards (37-Q.Lake).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.51 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model