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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Dallas Cowboys 36

What Actually Happened

(13:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-B.Rypien pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Kupp [11-M.Parsons].

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model