4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Dallas Cowboys 43

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 8-L.Havrisik 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model