4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:48) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model