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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 13

Detroit Lions 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 36-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 13, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model