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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Monday 2023-10-30 · 20:15 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

LV
30.8%
DET
69.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.182 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) +0.191 EPA/dropback (LV starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Brian Hoyer)

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
DET 29
Projected margin: DET by 8 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

LV

Divine Deablo LB Out Ankle
Curtis Bolton LB Questionable Knee
Daniel Carlson K Questionable right Groin
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Ankle

DET

Jonah Jackson G Out Ankle
David Montgomery RB Out Ribs
Frank Ragnow C Doubtful Toe
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Questionable Illness
Josh Paschal DE Questionable Knee
Benito Jones DT Questionable Ankle
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Questionable Ankle
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 14
–
DET 26

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:56 FG DET (7:56) 36-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. LV 0 – DET 3
  • Q2 12:27 FG DET (12:27) 36-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. LV 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 08:12 FG DET (8:12) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. LV 0 – DET 9
  • Q2 03:00 TD LV (3:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – DET 9
  • Q2 00:31 TD DET (:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – DET 15
  • Q3 11:47 TD LV (11:47) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at LV 25. 24-M.Peters for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – DET 16
  • Q3 03:20 TD DET (3:20) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 14 – DET 22
  • Q4 10:04 FG DET (10:04) 36-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. LV 14 – DET 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%

    (7:56) 36-R.Patterson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:51) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DET 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:04) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to LV 41, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 33%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep right to 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (12:27) 36-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:31) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to DET 22, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (8:12) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:13) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to DET 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 29 for 9 yards (45-Jak.Johnson, 20-I.Pola-Mao). LV-45-Jak.Johnson was injured during the play. He is Out. PENALTY on LV-19-D.Turner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DET 29.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:14) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to DET 40, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 9 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer; 87-M.Mayer).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:15) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to DET 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (10:04) 36-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at LV 28 for -8 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (5:03) 36-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 18 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (3:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 22-A.Abdullah to LV 44 for 12 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 32-B.Branch).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 70%

    (2:00) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright to LV 31 for 5 yards (39-N.Hobbs).