Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Detroit Lions 23

(1:15) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to DET 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.87 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model