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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 34

Detroit Lions 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 36-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model