Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Detroit Lions 26

(7:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at LV 28 for -8 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.40 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP