Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Detroit Lions 26

(3:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 22-A.Abdullah to LV 44 for 12 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 32-B.Branch).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

What Happened

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.01 EP
75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 68, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP