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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to DET 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP