4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 89

Detroit Lions 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to LV 41, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.25 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 89, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model