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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep right to 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.30 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model