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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 55

New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NYG 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.43 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 55, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP