4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

4-3 HC Robert Saleh
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

2-6 HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2023-10-29 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 35.0

Win Probability

NYJ
36.0%
NYG
64.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Zach Wilson (NYJ): -0.217 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • NYJ defense: -0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20 13–27
–
NYG 23 16–30
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYJ

Joe Tippmann C Out Quadricep
Irvin Charles WR Doubtful Shoulder
Michael Carter CB Questionable Hamstring
Will McDonald DE Questionable Back
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Shoulder

NYG

Gary Brightwell RB Out Hamstring
Daniel Jones QB Out Neck
Andrew Thomas T Doubtful Hamstring
Adoree' Jackson CB Questionable Neck
Evan Neal T Questionable Ankle
John Michael Schmitz C Questionable Shoulder
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Questionable Knee
Darren Waller TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 13
–
NYG 10

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:11 FG NYG (12:11) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYJ 0 – NYG 3
  • Q1 01:18 TD NYJ (1:18) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 20-Bre.Hall for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-28-C.Flott, Illegal Contact, declined. NYJ 6 – NYG 3
  • Q3 09:03 TD NYG (9:03) (Shotgun) 15-T.DeVito left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – NYG 9
  • Q4 00:01 FG NYJ (:01) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 10 – NYG 10
  • Q5 06:12 FG NYJ (6:12) 9-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. NYJ 13 – NYG 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (12:11) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:29) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to NYG 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 37 for 9 yards (55-C.Surratt, 42-T.Hennessy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:37) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NYJ 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for 4 yards (44-N.McCloud).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:21) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NYG 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:55) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to NYJ 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 28%

    (3:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NYG 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:29) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to NYJ 40, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 82-X.Gipson to 50 for 10 yards (30-D.Holmes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 80%

    (12:48) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (11:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NYG 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to NYJ 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:18) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to NYG 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 21 for 8 yards (89-J.Ruckert).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (6:38) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to NYJ 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 23 yards to NYJ 42, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 43%

    (1:17) 6-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to NYJ 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-D.Reed.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to NYG 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 48 for 15 yards (52-S.Eguavoen; 42-T.Hennessy).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYJ 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:34) 5-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NYG 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 34 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 89-J.Ruckert).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:04) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to NYJ 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:36) 5-T.Morstead punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 27 for 12 yards (21-A.Davis). FUMBLES (21-A.Davis), ball out of bounds at NYG 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYJ 16, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:15) 5-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to NYG 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:07) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYJ 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 28 for 6 yards (35-J.Corbin; 41-M.McFadden).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (9:30) 5-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to NYG 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:47) 6-J.Gillan punts 32 yards to NYJ 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-52-C.Coughlin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:33) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 26 for -15 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 94%

    (:28) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

    See the full breakdown →