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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 75

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to NYJ 17, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model